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Friday, May 21, 2021

Got preps?

In December 2019, scientists recorded a minimum number of sunspots. That observation marked the end of cycle 24, the panel later said, and based on how fast the spots had started reappearing, it seemed that cycle 25 would be similar in intensity to the relative calm of cycle 24. 

However, other solar cycle experts reached a dramatically different conclusion: Cycle 25 could be one of the strongest since record-keeping began in 1755. Instead of counting sunspots, Robert Leamon of the University of Maryland, Baltimore County, and his collaborators based their prediction on something they call the terminator, or the point when all magnetic activity from a previous solar cycle vanishes. Sunspots generally track that transition, but the true terminator tends to lag behind the sunspot minimum by somewhere between 12 and 18 months.