Friday, October 30, 2020
Another Pollster Sees a Trump Win
The Trafalgar Group’s Robert Cahaly is an outlier among pollsters in that he thinks President Trump will carry Michigan, Pennsylvania, or both, and hence be reelected with roughly 280 electoral votes. (I explained his thinking here.) Last week another pollster, Jim Lee of Susquehanna Polling and Research, echoed some of Cahaly’s points about shy Trump voters being missed by pollsters. “There is definitely a submerged Trump vote,” Lee said. Asked for a prediction, he hedged a little but then predicted a Trump win: “I can’t call it. If the turnout is going to be what I think, Trump wins it.”
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I wonder about Michigan. I live in a conservative town and there are a lot more Biden signs than there were Clinton signs last time. The fights over "covid" shut downs has polarized people with some people sliding left because they think Trump blew it. Detroit likely will pull enough votes out of the cemetery's to carry the state.
ReplyDeleteI agree with the sign observation and it's worrying. But Biden and Obama are coming to Michigan today, so they don't feel like they have the state in the bag.
DeleteI expect (pray?) That there is an abundance of quiet Trump voters. Folks like me who, when phone polled, answer with lines like, "Isn't Trump awful?", And, "Why would I want a tool of death like a gun in my home?"
ReplyDeleteNot a lie, but misleading as a sumbich.
I'm from Michigan and I can tell you he really draws a crowd anywhere he has a rally, but we have a lot of stupid people that will vote against their best interest when the time comes. Personally my business is way up under trump and the Republican tax cut was HUGE! A Typical $15-$20 an hour employee got an extra $50 in the paycheck with the tax cut GAINING about $1,300/year in take-home pay. The same person complained that her Tax refund was only $500 when it was $800 before the tax cuts. She lost $300 in refund but gained $1,300 in take-home pay so she was still $1,000 ahead with Trump but somehow her friends, (UAW members)convinced her that she did not really get a tax cut, only the rich got one. You cannot help some people, she will be voting for Biden.
ReplyDeleteSilly article writer. Everyone knows that the only pollster-pundits that can be trusted are Frank Luntz and Nate Silver.
ReplyDeleteThe reason of why this is so is left as an exercise for the reader.