A very old article in The Journal of The Committee to Investigate Claims of the Paranormal had a challenge of a Masters level Nation Weather Service scientist against an average Joe. The NWS are the people who do the real weather report given to the pretty face that presents on TV. The average Joe would predict the weather by saying "tomorrow will look like today." The NWS was the looser by a small margin and both predictions accuracy were below 50%.
Of course if you trust 'experts' from most any field without doing your own due diligence, you haven't been paying attention. Knowledge is not free, you have to pay attention.
Funny thing is, WAY back in '82, my High School meteorology class had a better day to day prediction rate than the weather service had. And all we had were hand held sling psychrometers, wind gauges, barometers and printed frontal maps. Our daily grade depended on being within 10% on pressure, cloud coverage and type of clouds, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed/direction and rain/no rain. That ain't easy to do in NW Florida where the weather can change at the fart of a flea.
Numerous studies have shown that initial conclusions in many fields are at best 50% correct. Only by looking at the issue many times does one get closer to but not always 100%
Having just made it through two "atmospheric rivers" from the tropics this last week, I'm going to say I think maybe we can place some faith in him this year. I mean, yes, it still gets a little cold when it FINALLY stops raining for a little while, but it's almost possible to run around naked when it IS raining. Yeah, yeah, that's so California, and they'll probably be snow rivers as they move east, but I'm thinkin' Phil may have called it this year.
Still higher than Biden's approval ratings...
ReplyDeleteJust sayin'.
Sedition
Still better than the climate change ‘scientists’.
ReplyDeleteMidwest Chick
Today 35 degrees was probably 30 degrees back then.
ReplyDeleteWith that rate, just plan on the opposite with a 61% chance rate.
ReplyDeleteA very old article in The Journal of The Committee to Investigate Claims of the Paranormal had a challenge of a Masters level Nation Weather Service scientist against an average Joe. The NWS are the people who do the real weather report given to the pretty face that presents on TV. The average Joe would predict the weather by saying "tomorrow will look like today." The NWS was the looser by a small margin and both predictions accuracy were below 50%.
ReplyDeleteOf course if you trust 'experts' from most any field without doing your own due diligence, you haven't been paying attention. Knowledge is not free, you have to pay attention.
Funny thing is, WAY back in '82, my High School meteorology class had a better day to day prediction rate than the weather service had. And all we had were hand held sling psychrometers, wind gauges, barometers and printed frontal maps. Our daily grade depended on being within 10% on pressure, cloud coverage and type of clouds, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed/direction and rain/no rain. That ain't easy to do in NW Florida where the weather can change at the fart of a flea.
DeleteNumerous studies have shown that initial conclusions in many fields are at best 50% correct. Only by looking at the issue many times does one get closer to but not always 100%
DeleteHaving just made it through two "atmospheric rivers" from the tropics this last week, I'm going to say I think maybe we can place some faith in him this year. I mean, yes, it still gets a little cold when it FINALLY stops raining for a little while, but it's almost possible to run around naked when it IS raining. Yeah, yeah, that's so California, and they'll probably be snow rivers as they move east, but I'm thinkin' Phil may have called it this year.
ReplyDeleteDamn, that's one old Whistle Pig!
ReplyDelete