One of the largest takeaways from Trump’s unexpected success in 2016 – and the inability of pollsters to accurately predict the support he earned in both 2016 and 2020 – is that Trump has continuously appealed to Americans who are less politically engaged.
Adding to the issue, is that Americans with lower political engagement are also generally harder to recruit into political surveys to share their opinions. We see this theme repeatedly, with low propensity voters, especially first-time voters, being much more likely to support Trump than highly active voters. At the same time, lower frequency voters are much harder to reach in polls before election day.
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I don't know about that. There's so much at stake with this election, more people than ever are paying attention to politics.
This is spot on. This is why I voted for him in 2016, 2020, and will in 2024. He really needs to shut his mouth sometimes, but then again at least you don't have to dig to find his faults. His policy is mostly right on and has a proven excellence record. People hate him so much because he threatens their political way of revenue which is corruption at the highest levels. He is defacto anti-political and anti-establishment. Poly meaning many... tics meaning blood sucking creatures.
ReplyDeleteLong term girlfriend's two 40ish sons registered to vote for the first time. And voted straight R - in GA.
ReplyDeleteI just heard on the radio this morning that the early voting numbers for western NC are about the same as in the last 2 elections (presidential). I have been to several places up there delivering supplies and they are doing amazing things amidst the devastation. Jeff C in NC
ReplyDeleteThat's good to hear. Thank you for that outstanding news!
DeleteIMO, the single biggest problem is that most people still get their "news" from mainstream media and believe the horseshit they get.
ReplyDeleteEd
^^^^ This, at least as far as people over 40. Millennials and younger cohorts get a lot of their "news" from podcasts and social media who we know from past experience don't publish anything that is not in line with the Demonrat agenda.
DeleteSaw a meme the other day that stated "the reason you don't believe you have been lied to and brainwashed, is because you've been lied to and brain washed". Then there's the meme stating "Orwell called them thought police. Big tech(meaning social media) calls them fact checkers". Not to mention that Obama repealed the Smith-Mundt act which proscribed propaganda being used on the American people.
Then there's the lack of civics and critical thinking courses in schools and we wonder why it seems that many are duped by the propaganda being spewed at us 24/7/365.
Nemo
Trump's appeal is genuine. In a fair election with paper and sharpies, one day, citizens only; he would demolish anyone. Why we passively accept the vote fraud is a head scratcher.
ReplyDeleteYes, more people than ever ARE paying attention to politics. On the other hand, has the seemingly endless 'election cycle' for what, 10-15 yrs now been responsible for that ? 24/7. every damned tv channel, radio,billboardmagazinesnewspaper. whew. i need a break. So, ill vote come next Tuesday, even tho it'll be the same richpiggies. different faces different names, but still the same. im thinking that my mental health demands i go be a hermit for awhile. seeyas, and good luck.
ReplyDeleteTry running a blog where you have to look at (hold on, let me count my bookmarks) TWENTY TWO news stations every damned day just for material. I'm so sick of politics I could puke.
DeleteI really have come to despise election years.
Deleteglad its you, not me...i dont like people that much. hey man, issit my imaginashkun, or do i recall you having a 'no politics' policy years ago.? not playin point n laff, just trying to remember. years n years. lol
DeleteNope, I've always run some political posts. They just weren't as heavy then as they've been the past 12 years or so.
DeleteMy sympathies wirecutter. Personally, my favorite part of election season has been that the politicians exempt themselves from all the anti-telemarketer laws. Bastards. I have no idea why people think they don't do the same with the tax code.
DeleteJohn G.
If Trump wins, things will be less expensive. If harris wins, shits going thru thr roof.
ReplyDeleteEvery year is an election year in Virginia.
ReplyDeletePortRepublic
Trump has been touched by God I think. Anyone that gets hit in the ear was a whisker from pushing up daises. I hope god wants us to straighten up and fly right.
ReplyDeleteOr maybe the pollsters are all lying commie bastards doing their best to prop up democrat's chances? After all, that's what polls are historically used for, so I don't see why that would change.
ReplyDeleteThere. A much simpler explanation - things are the same as they have been, just a little bit worse.
John G.
I think you have something there. I see on news aggregator sites that on the very same day a poll taken lists Harris as gaining or being up by a small amount, while a different article shows that it it Trump who is leading, usually by a small margin. For the exact same state.
DeleteAnyone who has ever taken a statistics class in college knows that you can get the results from a poll you want, just by the questions asked, by the people you ask, and by when you take the poll. A poll taken at midday will usually under represent the conservative side, due to the conservatives being at work. Asking questions that make the answers lean to one side or the other is another trick that pollsters use to showcase that their candidate is leading.
Like Wirecutter, I look at a number of different news sites, although only about 5 or 6, not 22. Plus I look to posts by people on social media that I both know and trust. I just had a friend move out to the Denver suburbs, from here in Michigan. His take just reinforces my feeling about Colorado. The city is mostly blue, but the rest of the state is solid red. That is why the state has such draconian gun controlling laws, when so very many people are gun owners, both for hunting and self defense.
The polls under estimate Trump because the polls are built to show kamala ahead. The state media is the PR arm of the democrats. I believe they think voters dont want to vote for a loser, therefore the media PR only shows kamala ahead. If it is behind it is only slightly in a gop state.
ReplyDeleteI always lie - a bit - when asked such questions. Screw up the answers to things none of their business
ReplyDeleteThis is so true because people who don't engage in politics trust that the government is always doing the right thing for the people. But, when it starts affecting their personal lives, they start paying attention.
ReplyDeleteConservatives are more prone than attention-whore Liberals to hang up on a pollster or not even answer the phone.
ReplyDelete-- There's so much at stake with this election, more people than ever are paying attention to politics. --
ReplyDeleteYes: because we hate the intrusion of politics into matters that are properly private. You've seen the graphics about "men who only want to be left alone." The psychology is the same.