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Wednesday, October 30, 2024

Commentary: Polls Underestimate Trump Because He Appeals to Americans Who Are Less Political

One of the largest takeaways from Trump’s unexpected success in 2016 – and the inability of pollsters to accurately predict the support he earned in both 2016 and 2020 – is that Trump has continuously appealed to Americans who are less politically engaged.

Adding to the issue, is that Americans with lower political engagement are also generally harder to recruit into political surveys to share their opinions. We see this theme repeatedly, with low propensity voters, especially first-time voters, being much more likely to support Trump than highly active voters. At the same time, lower frequency voters are much harder to reach in polls before election day.
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I don't know about that. There's so much at stake with this election, more people than ever are paying attention to politics.

12 comments:

  1. This is spot on. This is why I voted for him in 2016, 2020, and will in 2024. He really needs to shut his mouth sometimes, but then again at least you don't have to dig to find his faults. His policy is mostly right on and has a proven excellence record. People hate him so much because he threatens their political way of revenue which is corruption at the highest levels. He is defacto anti-political and anti-establishment. Poly meaning many... tics meaning blood sucking creatures.

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  2. Long term girlfriend's two 40ish sons registered to vote for the first time. And voted straight R - in GA.

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  3. I just heard on the radio this morning that the early voting numbers for western NC are about the same as in the last 2 elections (presidential). I have been to several places up there delivering supplies and they are doing amazing things amidst the devastation. Jeff C in NC

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  4. IMO, the single biggest problem is that most people still get their "news" from mainstream media and believe the horseshit they get.
    Ed

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  5. Trump's appeal is genuine. In a fair election with paper and sharpies, one day, citizens only; he would demolish anyone. Why we passively accept the vote fraud is a head scratcher.

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  6. Yes, more people than ever ARE paying attention to politics. On the other hand, has the seemingly endless 'election cycle' for what, 10-15 yrs now been responsible for that ? 24/7. every damned tv channel, radio,billboardmagazinesnewspaper. whew. i need a break. So, ill vote come next Tuesday, even tho it'll be the same richpiggies. different faces different names, but still the same. im thinking that my mental health demands i go be a hermit for awhile. seeyas, and good luck.

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    Replies
    1. Try running a blog where you have to look at (hold on, let me count my bookmarks) TWENTY TWO news stations every damned day just for material. I'm so sick of politics I could puke.

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    2. I really have come to despise election years.

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    3. glad its you, not me...i dont like people that much. hey man, issit my imaginashkun, or do i recall you having a 'no politics' policy years ago.? not playin point n laff, just trying to remember. years n years. lol

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    4. Nope, I've always run some political posts. They just weren't as heavy then as they've been the past 12 years or so.

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  7. If Trump wins, things will be less expensive. If harris wins, shits going thru thr roof.

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  8. Every year is an election year in Virginia.
    PortRepublic

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