Yet they don't say a thing about the false positives
TULSA, Okla. (KTUL) - An Oklahoma woman is warning others not to solely rely on negative test results amid the coronavirus pandemic. Despite exhibiting symptoms, she received four tests and only one came back positive for the virus.
I would love to be the one to tell her that Covid isn't the only disease with those symptoms. A bad cold can cause the loss of taste for a lot of people, and it can trigger a false positive on a Covid test.
A couple months ago, the nursing home my wife is in contacted me to update me on their chinaflu situation (a weekly phone call). One woman had two rapid tests on the Monday. Both negative. She went to the hospital on Tuesday for a procedure, a positive test. Wednesday she had two more tests one at the hospital and one at the nursing home, both were negative. The local health department counted her as a "recovered chinaflu case". At no time did she have any symptoms, including a fever. I don't trust any of the numbers.
1. False positives range from 30 to 60 % with the various COVID test being used. 2. False negatives for viral tests are possible, but rare. Two false negatives in a PCR? Bull shit. 3. And thanks to this a$$hole and others like her, the testing facilities will get a lot of terrified people showing up who want to keep getting retested until they get a result that says their sniffles are COVID.
I would think the prevalence of false positives would be higher than false negatives using the PCR test. Here in NH we've seen the so-called "Quick Test" have an almost 33% false positive rate. Follow-on PCR tests have shown a negative result. A vast majority of the people with a positive QT and negative PCR never developed any symptoms. However, the PCR test can show a false positive if the testing lab uses too many amplification cycles to replicate any Covid-19 RNA/DNA. This has been a problem right from the beginning.
I understand exactly what you are talking about. I studied it when the testing was getting started, and saw for myself just how they were using too many amplification cycles, thus making in effect a test that was so sensitive that there was no other possible outcome than to have an extremely high number of false positives. Yet they continue to rely upon these tests to tell us just how many cases there are in the nation, and to shut down small businesses,putting many of them out of business for good. My parents used to own a restaurant when they were alive, for over 30 years. In a very small town, they used to gross over 300,000$ per year. But in the circumstances happening today, I doubt that they would have kept the business open. They were the 2nd largest employer in the town, after the school system. So it would have effected many others as well.
If they are using a PCR test in which the DNA of the virus IF ANY is replicated over and over again up to 35 times. At 35 times the tests are accurate about 3% of the time. Typically the standard is 25 times as anything more than that the accuracy drops rapidly. At 25 times they show pieces of DNA that could be or have been in the virus NOT whether the virus is active or not. So if you were wondering why So many positive tests show no symptoms at all that is probably why.
I have a friend who got sick a couple of weeks ago. She works in a nursing home, so she went to the emergency room and got tested. Came back negative, so her boss made her go to her family doctor. He said she had a false negative and tested her again, negative. They made her get tested again, negative. She asked them to test her for the flu, but they wouldn't, kept insisting that she had Covid. She probably ended up in the books as a "probable" case. 😡
The original developer of the test said that they knew it would have many false positives, but they thought that was better than false negatives. The test was never meant to be the end all. It was meant to be used in conjunction with diagnosis of symptoms by your doctor.
I would love to be the one to tell her that Covid isn't the only disease with those symptoms. A bad cold can cause the loss of taste for a lot of people, and it can trigger a false positive on a Covid test.
ReplyDeleteA couple months ago, the nursing home my wife is in contacted me to update me on their chinaflu situation (a weekly phone call). One woman had two rapid tests on the Monday. Both negative. She went to the hospital on Tuesday for a procedure, a positive test. Wednesday she had two more tests one at the hospital and one at the nursing home, both were negative. The local health department counted her as a "recovered chinaflu case". At no time did she have any symptoms, including a fever. I don't trust any of the numbers.
ReplyDeleteThis is STUNNINGLY irresponsible.
ReplyDelete1. False positives range from 30 to 60 % with the various COVID test being used.
2. False negatives for viral tests are possible, but rare. Two false negatives in a PCR? Bull shit.
3. And thanks to this a$$hole and others like her, the testing facilities will get a lot of terrified people showing up who want to keep getting retested until they get a result that says their sniffles are COVID.
Rancid, feral human scum.
I would think the prevalence of false positives would be higher than false negatives using the PCR test. Here in NH we've seen the so-called "Quick Test" have an almost 33% false positive rate. Follow-on PCR tests have shown a negative result. A vast majority of the people with a positive QT and negative PCR never developed any symptoms. However, the PCR test can show a false positive if the testing lab uses too many amplification cycles to replicate any Covid-19 RNA/DNA. This has been a problem right from the beginning.
ReplyDeleteI understand exactly what you are talking about. I studied it when the testing was getting started, and saw for myself just how they were using too many amplification cycles, thus making in effect a test that was so sensitive that there was no other possible outcome than to have an extremely high number of false positives.
DeleteYet they continue to rely upon these tests to tell us just how many cases there are in the nation, and to shut down small businesses,putting many of them out of business for good.
My parents used to own a restaurant when they were alive, for over 30 years. In a very small town, they used to gross over 300,000$ per year. But in the circumstances happening today, I doubt that they would have kept the business open. They were the 2nd largest employer in the town, after the school system. So it would have effected many others as well.
pigpen51
If they are using a PCR test in which the DNA of the virus IF ANY is replicated over and over again up to 35 times. At 35 times the tests are accurate about 3% of the time. Typically the standard is 25 times as anything more than that the accuracy drops rapidly. At 25 times they show pieces of DNA that could be or have been in the virus NOT whether the virus is active or not. So if you were wondering why So many positive tests show no symptoms at all that is probably why.
ReplyDeleteI have a friend who got sick a couple of weeks ago.
ReplyDeleteShe works in a nursing home, so she went to the emergency room and got tested. Came back negative, so her boss made her go to her family doctor. He said she had a false negative and tested her again, negative.
They made her get tested again, negative.
She asked them to test her for the flu, but they wouldn't, kept insisting that she had Covid.
She probably ended up in the books as a "probable" case. 😡
The original developer of the test said that they knew it would have many false positives, but they thought that was better than false negatives.
ReplyDeleteThe test was never meant to be the end all. It was meant to be used in conjunction with diagnosis of symptoms by your doctor.