
345A Simpler and More Realistic Subjective Decision TheorySynthese 195 (10): 42054241. 2018.In his classic book “the Foundations of Statistics” Savage developed a formal system of rational decision making. The system is based on (i) a set of possible states of the world, (ii) a set of consequences, (iii) a set of acts, which are functions from states to consequences, and (iv) a preference relation over the acts, which represents the preferences of an idealized rational agent. The goal and the culmination of the enterprise is a representation theorem: Any preference relation that satisf…Read more

304The Surething Principle and P2Economics Letters 159 221223. 2017.This paper offers a fine analysis of different versions of the well known surething principle. We show that Savage's formal formulation of the principle, i.e., his second postulate (P2), is strictly stronger than what is intended originally.

267Two Tales of Epistemic ModelsThought: A Journal of Philosophy 8 (4): 291302. 2019.This short paper has two parts. First, we prove a generalisation of Aumann's surprising impossibility result in the context of rational decision making. We then move, in the second part, to discuss the interpretational meaning of some formal setups of epistemic models, and we do so by means of presenting an interesting puzzle in epistemic logic. The aim is to highlight certain problematic aspects of these epistemic systems concerning first/thirdperson asymmetry which underlies both parts of the…Read more

256"Click!" Bait for CausalistsIn Arif Ahmed (ed.), Newcomb's Problem, Cambridge University Press. pp. 160179. 2018.Causalists and Evidentialists can agree about the right course of action in an (apparent) Newcomb problem, if the causal facts are not as initially they seem. If declining $1,000 causes the Predictor to have placed $1m in the opaque box, CDT agrees with EDT that oneboxing is rational. This creates a difficulty for Causalists. We explain the problem with reference to Dummett's work on backward causation and Lewis's on chance and crystal balls. We show that the possibility that the causal facts …Read more

244Countable Additivity, Idealization, and Conceptual RealismEconomics and Philosophy 36 (1): 127147. 2020.This paper addresses the issue of finite versus countable additivity in Bayesian probability and decision theory  in particular, Savage's theory of subjective expected utility and personal probability. I show that Savage's reason for not requiring countable additivity in his theory is inconclusive. The assessment leads to an analysis of various highly idealised assumptions commonly adopted in Bayesian theory, where I argue that a healthy dose of, what I call, conceptual realism is often helpfu…Read more

238Contextdependent UtilitiesIn Wiebe Van Der Hoek, Wesley H. Holliday & Wen Fang Wang (eds.), Logic, Rationality, and Interaction, Springer. pp. 90101. 2015.Savage's framework of subjective preference among acts provides a paradigmatic derivation of rational subjective probabilities within a more general theory of rational decisions. The system is based on a set of possible states of the world, and on acts, which are functions that assign to each state a consequence. The representation theorem states that the given preference between acts is determined by their expected utilities, based on uniquely determined probabilities (assigned to sets of sta…Read more

208Heart of DARCnessAustralasian Journal of Philosophy 97 (1): 136150. 2019.There is a longstanding disagreement in the philosophy of probability and Bayesian decision theory about whether an agent can hold a meaningful credence about an upcoming action, while she deliberates about what to do. Can she believe that it is, say, 70% probable that she will do A, while she chooses whether to do A? No, say some philosophers, for Deliberation Crowds Out Prediction (DCOP), but others disagree. In this paper, we propose a valid core for DCOP, and identify terminological causes …Read more

200Frege's Begriffsschrift is Indeed FirstOrder CompleteHistory and Philosophy of Logic 38 (4): 342344. 2017.It is widely taken that the firstorder part of Frege's Begriffsschrift is complete. However, there does not seem to have been a formal verification of this received claim. The general concern is that Frege's system is one axiom short in the firstorder predicate calculus comparing to, by now, the standard firstorder theory. Yet Frege has one extra inference rule in his system. Then the question is whether Frege's firstorder calculus is still deductively sufficient as far as the firstorder co…Read more

160Ramsey and Joyce on Deliberation and PredictionSynthese 197 43654386. 2020.Can an agent deliberating about an action A hold a meaningful credence that she will do A? 'No', say some authors, for 'Deliberation Crowds Out Prediction' (DCOP). Others disagree, but we argue here that such disagreements are often terminological. We explain why DCOP holds in a Ramseyian operationalist model of credence, but show that it is trivial to extend this model so that DCOP fails. We then discuss a model due to Joyce, and show that Joyce's rejection of DCOP rests on terminological choic…Read more

105Incomplete Preference and Indeterminate Comparative ProbabilityBritish Journal for the Philosophy of Science. forthcoming.The notion of comparative probability defined in Bayesian subjectivist theory stems from an intuitive idea that, for a given pair of events, one event may be considered “more probable” than the other. Yet it is conceivable that there are cases where it is indeterminate as to which event is more probable, due to, e.g., lack of robust statistical information. We take that these cases involve indeterminate comparative probabilities. This paper provides a Savagestyle decisiontheoretic foundation f…Read more

13Overcoming Barriers to Crosscultural Cooperation in AI Ethics and GovernancePhilosophy and Technology 33 (4): 571593. 2020.Achieving the global benefits of artificial intelligence will require international cooperation on many areas of governance and ethical standards, while allowing for diverse cultural perspectives and priorities. There are many barriers to achieving this at present, including mistrust between cultures, and more practical challenges of coordinating across different locations. This paper focuses particularly on barriers to cooperation between Europe and North America on the one hand and East Asia o…Read more

Impacts of Color Coding on Programming Learning in Multimedia Learning: Moving Toward a Multimodal MethodologyFrontiers in Psychology 12. 2021.In the present study, we tested the effectiveness of color coding on the programming learning of students who were learning from video lectures. Effectiveness was measured using multimodal physiological measures, combining eye tracking and electroencephalography. Using a betweensubjects design, 42 university students were randomly assigned to two video lecture conditions. The participants’ eye tracking and EEG signals were recorded while watching the assigned video, and their learning performan…Read more