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Friday, August 16, 2024

Commentary: Harris’ Polling Bump Shows Incumbency Still Tough to Overcome, Even amid Economic Concerns

Vice President Kamala Harris is enjoying a bump in national polls against former President Donald Trump following President Joe Biden stepping aside from the 2024 presidential race as Democrats are re-consolidating around Harris with less than three months to go until Election Day on Nov. 5, with the latest national polling average compiled by RealClearPolling.com showing Harris with a slight edge, 47.6 percent to 47.1 percent.

This appears to be the incumbency advantage reasserting itself. In U.S. history, incumbent presidents—defined as those sitting in office and standing for another term — have run for election 33 times. They won 23 times and lost 10 times, a 69.7 percent victory rate and 30.3 percent defeat rate.
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I take polls with a grain of salt. Look at the polls from the Clinton/Trump race - Billary was trouncing Trump in the polls, then he beat the holy shit out of her in the elections.

16 comments:

  1. Kenny's right about polls, they say whatever the one paying for it wants it to say
    JD

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  2. Polls are meant to make conservative (small c) voters feel defeated and stay home.

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  3. Ken, I think you will find hatred of trump has not diminished in the urban strongholds. I dont know a single trump hater who has changed his tune. A couple I know may vote libertarian but the rest are still gobbling up what ever the MSM dish out.











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  4. The polls are part of the propaganda. They are to keep the people convinced it's 50/50 so they will meekly accept what the election results are proclaimed.

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  5. How is it that no one with two working brain cells believes the MSM except when it comes to polls? All of a sudden they tell the truth? If they say she is leading, she is way behind. Way behind. They need the fake poll numbers to make the election night steal seem plausible.
    OutOfTime

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  6. The bump is phony. The NYT has admitted it's been oversampling Democrats. We can assujme all the other Lefties are, too.

    Remember, Chlamydia was even less popular than Brandon and the Demos have been quite dispirited.

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  7. All these polls are worth horse poop because they over sample Demonrats in every one. The only poll that counts are the ones taking place in early November and then ONLY if Demonrats don't cheat. 81 million votes my ass.

    Nemo

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    Replies
    1. THIS. President Trump was beating Biden until the 2am jump, and then all of the sudden he jumped to win 52 to 48%. And the cheating mechanisms were used in the 2022 election, and are still in place for 2024.
      TINVOWOOT

      Steve

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  8. Even if the polls showed a democrat 30 points behind, state run media would still show them ahead to con you into thinking everyone agrees with what they are doing.

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  9. Don't laugh at the "polls', but remember there are untold millions of emotionally reacting instant gratification assholes out there and being a citizen or not their votes will still be counted. Kamel-toe with the help of some Democrats with brains is already using "free stuff" trolling for undecided votes from the bread & circus addicts. Her policies include a ban on “corporate price-gouging” (price controls that will eventually lead to shortages) to lower the cost of groceries and prescription drugs, and they aim to expand affordable housing and cut taxes for the middle class. It's perfect fodder for the stupid public.

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  10. I love how the incumbents are suddenly concerned about the economy. The question is how many people are dumb enough to remember that the focus was largely on destructive economic policies for the last 3+ years, and should they retain power, it will conveniently be back-burnered again until the next election cycle?

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  11. Fake polling, fake elections. The Founding Male-Identifying, Raping, Misogynist Oppressors are spinning in their graves.

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  12. Georgia supreme court just opened the door to fixing Dominion's hash.

    https://twitter.com/BehizyTweets/status/1824157680966975819
    MSM has not figured out how to spin it yet.

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  13. These are the same people who told everyone that Hitlery couldn't possibly lose the election, that it was all over but the triumphal parade and celebration.

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  14. I can't believe people still talk about voting as if it matters...

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  15. Shades of 2016. And 2020 for that matter.

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